The sharks are circling just around the corner and are back again. Grrrrrr..... I can hear you....Love it... hey guys welcome...;-)
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Still think it doesnt work, cherry pick, not enough here? Ok, let me again show another example: There was a guy who asked on 20th April in the cycles forum: ".. is it still “safe” to enter longs using the daily DCE?"
My reply on 2nd May: "NO - do not go long on the daily chart. We just passed the midpoint of the longer dominat cycle - please review my posts on this topic. Monitor the shorter timeframe closely."
You all know the top in the dow was May 1st. I protected him from going long and diretected him to go short. However, I never heard back from him.... I think he must be too happy with my answer... ;-)
[Review: http://forum.wave59.com/idealbb/view.asp?topicID=6141]
[... story end ...]
Felipe,
now let me "try" to answer. Your questions look complicated, however the answer is really simple and all is sitting in front of you.
Main question with regard to the daily chart:
"cycle analysis [add: on the daily chart] that showed that the market was topping and expected to decline, all this cycle projections failed, as the market kept rallying for much longer."
I tried to explain this already in the forum, let me restate again:
Everytime you see or do an analysis on one timeframe - you have to look at the next higher timeframe what the current condition (trend, dominant cycle, etc.) is. Thats exactly the case with the examples on the daily chart which you refer to and which showed topping projections since January this year. However, the weekly chart would have shown you that we are in a dominant upswing that will last into May this year. This would have told you that you would not want to trade against the larger trend - as seen on the weekly dominant chart. This is basic stuff - so thats the reason why I did not write about this in the book. However, basic technical analysis knowledge applies to cycle analysis, sure.
The charts you refer to are posted as "snap shots" - if you want to tell the full story - There is a difference of my market analysis I do and outline and mostly refer to if I review "calls" - and that I do post just pictures/charts as snapshots without any comment to point you to some charts to study. Thats a difference you should not hide.
However, as soon as I realized in February that not all of the cycles customers are already familiar with this knowledge, I did set up a complete 1h seminar about the cycles-wihtin-cycles approach - it was free for everyone. And not enough - I started to write it down word by word which can now be read as intermarket cycles-within-cycles approach in the current article.
To make it even exact: There is the chart which explains the situation in the thread.
http://forum.wave59.com/idealbb/view.asp?topicID=5938&pageNo=5
To sum it up:
Here is the answer to your questions and related charts:
1. Go to the next higher timeframe to see what the larger dominanct cycle is and in what phase you are if you switch back to the shorter timefime
2. Use intermarket confirmation of dominant cycles from other verhicles to confirm the analysis - (example: VIX+SPX, Gold+Silver, different forex pairs with the same currency in...)
This is all written down step by step in the current article which is avaiable for nothing.
Please follow the knowledge road I do provide. I can not do more than that to teach you for free with the technical analysis skills. I am sorry if the way I prepare the information is not able to reach you. Please review the traderworld seminar, read the article, read the statements in the thread you refer to. It is all there already.
I hope this helps.
Regards,
Lars
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Posted: 3/15/2012 5:56:10 PM
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