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SP's and Dollar

P: 2/7/2010 10:29:33 AM

SimonB

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Total Posts: 486
Last Post: 9/8/2010
Member Since: 9/23/2008

Hi All,

SP's stopped at confluence of important supports. Even though Market has reacted of important time resistance, stronger price resistance has not been tested yet.

Dollar, Gold and Euro are all at the end of their respective, so far, corrective patterns. Lows we have seen on Friday should be good for a while, Market

should be able to stage a nice rebound, and maybe even reach important price levels at 1165 - 1185 range by late March or early April, as discussed before.

Dollar's comments are on the chart.

Good trading,

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/7/2010 1:53:00 PM

djs

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Last Post: 9/3/2010
Member Since: 8/27/2006

This is the 'fun' of markets, as we have Lars in another thread indicating that a large cross from a couple perspectives is in process. Since it's Super Bowl day and I'm in a betting mood I will side with Simon on this one. Lars' indicator doesn't preclude the fact that a hold and rally is possible for several more months. See his Jan 09 cross which was a fake preceding another large drop. Thanks to you both for continued excellent posts.

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P: 2/7/2010 2:51:41 PM

SimonB

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Total Posts: 486
Last Post: 9/8/2010
Member Since: 9/23/2008

Thanks DJS,

It is always great to cover as many angles and possibilities as possible, being wrong is a lot better than being caught off guard and not having strategy in place to react.

Lars's stuff is always great, and this one also will shed light on what is going on in due time. Thanks Lars.

This is weekly ES, originally I showed this chart as line on close, that's why extremes of some bars penetrate lines.

It does seem to me that Market will make a run at 1200 over the next few months, I only left one set of Fib ratios on this chart, best way to tell which one may be of best use

is to see how Market responded to important Fib ratios in the past ( shown with fuchsia arrows), and this one seems to be the one that Market is following.

Good trading All !

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/8/2010 1:23:25 PM

SimonB

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Last Post: 9/8/2010
Member Since: 9/23/2008

Like shown in chart above, Dollar has entered strongest daily time resistance in a while, Feb 8 - Feb 10.

If indeed rally in greenback will turnout to be only corrective bounce, many commodities should be able to advance, and Gold is probably

going to benefit the most.

Ever since this decline started, based on overall pattern, it was targeting same time frame, Feb 8-10, for decline to terminate at a range of 1038 - 1046.

Overall pattern suggests new move highs sometime in March 2010, but even if new highs will fail, this seems to be reasonable long entry point with well

defined, relatively low risk, see enclosed chart.

Best,

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/9/2010 1:54:30 PM

Barrie

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Hi Simon, I like your line work alot, always offering a fresh perspective, but while was reading your posts, this jumped off the screen - being wrong is a lot better than being caught off guard and not having strategy in place

There is much insight and levels to that statement, I even saved it for future ref. :-)

Thanks. Barrie

----------------
On 2/7/2010 2:51:41 PM SimonB wrote:

Thanks DJS,

It is always great to cover as many angles and possibilities as possible, being wrong is a lot better than being caught off guard and not having strategy in place to react.

Lars's stuff is always great, and this one also will shed light on what is going on in due time. Thanks Lars.

This is weekly ES, originally I showed this chart as line on close, that's why extremes of some bars penetrate lines.

It does seem to me that Market will make a run at 1200 over the next few months, I only left one set of Fib ratios on this chart, best way to tell which one may be of best use

is to see how Market responded to important Fib ratios in the past ( shown with fuchsia arrows), and this one seems to be the one that Market is following.

Good trading All !

----------------

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P: 2/9/2010 4:46:59 PM

SimonB

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Hi Barrie,

Thank you for your comments, after I wrote it and read it again, I felt much more explanation was needed for this statement, but I decided to leave it at that, and stick with actual technical work, some of these nuances of trading require long and difficult explanations, and I really do not want to bore folks here.

Just throw stuff out there when something interesting in my opinion is taking place, I hope everyone is not looking at these as right or wrong, these meant to serve as heads up for conditions being in place for CIT.

Best,

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/13/2010 9:08:11 AM

SimonB

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Member Since: 9/23/2008

This is UUP daily, dollar bullish ETF, we are seeing large increase in volume over the past few months, in a longer view this is bullish.

It seems UUP has completed a corrective advance, and volume spike on a reversal bar on the highs supports this view.

Although there are many indications that next few years should be bullish for the Dollar, over the next month or two Dollar should remain

at bay, and that should help equity Markets make a run at the strong price resistance close to 1200 on the SP's, and really show us it's

strength or lack of it. Long term, 2-3 years out, SP's should take out March 2009 lows.

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/19/2010 1:07:37 PM

stevee

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Chart based questions about usdx. Divergence appears now, how good a signal is it? New highs on declining volume, 9-5 count topping, fib counts confirming, fractal trend flatening. Near a top? /idealbb/files/usdx 2-18-10.jpg

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P: 2/19/2010 1:50:12 PM

SimonB

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Last Post: 9/8/2010
Member Since: 9/23/2008

Hi Stevee, thanks for the chart, very good work, great geometry.

In all honesty, I have never done much testing with daily 9-5 count, don't know how reliable it is on daily time frame.
But everything else is very bullish in the Dollar longer term. The rally we are seeing in the Dollar for the past few months is on very good volume, the fact that it is beeing so persistent in face of Market rally is also bullish, we are seeing relationship of Market, Euro, Gold up, and Dollar down, falling apart. Something will have to give eventually, Dollar or Market, and it is not unusual to see these kind of divergences at the end of longer moves, or like in Dollar's case, begining ( of what I think ) multi-year rally. I think Dollar will prevail, and we will see much lower equity prices, and much higher Dollar by the end of the year.

As far as divergence in Dollar's chart, they are not very reliable during trending moves. With that said, like you can see from my dollar chart above, I do think it's due for a pullback, and that should make for higher stock prices over the next 4-6 weeks, but as we get to second half of March or early April, we should see a start of nasty, consistent decline in to July or so, and then lower prices yet by the end of 2010.

Best,

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/19/2010 2:04:26 PM

bernardo

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Hello Simon. Sharp analysis, your charts are very clear and helpfull.
thanks for your posts.

Bernardo

Revisions : 0 | Posted: 2/19/2010 2:04:26 PM | IP: Recorded | Report this post

P: 2/19/2010 5:11:25 PM

Barrie

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Nice find Simon, these don't get much prettier than this! :-) is there a good retracement number from the high? Might be looking at a picture perfect gartley.

----------------
On 2/13/2010 9:08:11 AM SimonB wrote:

This is UUP daily, dollar bullish ETF, we are seeing large increase in volume over the past few months, in a longer view this is bullish.

It seems UUP has completed a corrective advance, and volume spike on a reversal bar on the highs supports this view.

Although there are many indications that next few years should be bullish for the Dollar, over the next month or two Dollar should remain

at bay, and that should help equity Markets make a run at the strong price resistance close to 1200 on the SP's, and really show us it's

strength or lack of it. Long term, 2-3 years out, SP's should take out March 2009 lows.

----------------

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P: 2/19/2010 5:40:03 PM

SimonB

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Last Post: 9/8/2010
Member Since: 9/23/2008

Thanks Barrie,

I think we kind of lost perfect Gartley formation here aalready, second up swing is over balanced for it to be perfect, but, still well within typical "ABC" correction.

Today's high exceeded 100% symmetry, but failed to close there. Today also, second up swing reached 162% expansion in time of the first one, very common for completion

of "ABC". Will see I guess, supports are on the chart, most important would be 100% of previous corrective swing ( red trident ) and ofcourse last swing in to low is always

important. With all that said, should it close above $24 on any day, odds will strongly favor third impulsive wave in the maknig, and corrective scenario will be invalid.

Best,

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/19/2010 5:47:36 PM

SimonB

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Member Since: 9/23/2008

Hi Bernardo,

Sorry, did not see your post earlier.

Thank You.

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/24/2010 9:19:58 PM

SimonB

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Last Post: 9/8/2010
Member Since: 9/23/2008

Soo far low on Feb 5th has proven to be a good tradable low.

Market should be able to make it to higher levels. First significant time resistance is second half of next week, with emphasis on friday March 5th.

If 1114 level is taken out, there isn't much in the way until 1127, 1135 and 1141. I suspect we should sww these levels shortly.

If SP's are rallying in to time resistance window March 4-5th that should increase it's effectiveness .

Best,

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/25/2010 12:15:21 AM

law6

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Wall Street's Bailout Hustle By Matt Taibbi Rolling Stone

law

Revisions : 0 | Posted: 2/25/2010 12:15:21 AM | IP: Recorded | Report this post

P: 3/7/2010 6:06:47 PM

SimonB

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Last Post: 9/8/2010
Member Since: 9/23/2008

Hi All,

It's been about a month since last Market update, and not much unexpected happened.

Charts below are same one's from before, and all price and time targets remain the same. Still looking for advance on balance to continue to late March

or early April, and for SP's to reach 1170 and maybe as high as a bit above 1200. With that said, last Friday, March 5th was daily high time resistance,

these things are always plus/minus one day, so we may see slightly higher levels tomorrow yet. I don't think we will get a large decline of this time res., but

some consolidation with smaller pullbacks is normal after a period like that.

I do think that will be final high for this year, and likely for the next 2-3 years. Everything on my longer term work points to likelyhood of SP's

reaching mid 500's, and DOW declining to mid 5000 level, over the next 12-24 months.

As always, sentiment and news are becoming more bullish near the highs, important to keep in mind that this is exactly why Market has rallied for the past year

or so, smart money is always 6-12 months ahead of the news and events that seem to justify current prices.

Good trading,

Simon Barbier

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P: 3/8/2010 12:12:22 AM

SimonB

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Hi DC,

This is SP's monthly, my chart does not go back far enough to show all Bradley Siderograph's lows, but interesting info I though.

1. The most important low in 1931 was set in the middle of the biggest depression in history 1929-33.

2. The 2nd lowest value in 1875 was in the middle of the crisis of the 1870s that began with the crash (Gründerzeitkrach) at the Vienna Stock Exchange in May 1873. Afterwards the European bourses experienced the sharpest bear market in the 19^th century.

3. The 3rd lowest Bradley index is September 2010 : isnt it interesting that the two historical models for the current crisis are 1931 and 1875? The reason for the low value 2010: there are massive disharmonic angles (T-square, partly even Grand Cross). This is the mathematical specification of the cardinal climax.

4. The 4th lowest value the early 1890s was not as spectacular, but in the early 1890s we saw the biggest bear market in

Simon Barbier

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P: 3/8/2010 9:17:23 AM

nebuchadnezzar

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Simon,

thanks for your posts. always enjoy reading your insightful analysis. it'll be interesting to see if Dollar goes on a tear as well alongwith a meltdown in S&P, as per your Jupiter declination cycles that you've shared on the board in the past.

do you have an opinion on Gold ? Jack Gillen belives the high in Gold is in, as part of an 8yr cycle. actually the window is until 10-Mar (started on 16-Oct-2009).

thanks again for your contributions...

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P: 3/8/2010 11:28:35 AM

rhythmstic

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Usually people don't draw parallels with Bradley values, i.e. Lows at extreme Lows, so I've not seen this before.
Nice work Simon

stic

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P: 3/8/2010 1:31:53 PM

SimonB

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Thanks nezzar, stic,

It is not all my work, those facts I read in an article, just wanted to share this stuff.

I have updated Gold charts also, but did not get a chance to upload them last night, Gold looks interesting, will upload later today.

Simon Barbier

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Ideal BB Version: 0.1.5.4b