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Dominant cycles upward pressure has ended

There are 67 replies to this message. There are 20 replies on this page.

P: 2/27/2010 4:03:30 PM

SimonB

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Last Post: 9/8/2010
Member Since: 9/23/2008

Hi Lars, interesting indeed, my work showing time rsistance starting on March 4th, with emphasis on March 5th. Usually on these dates, if Market reaches

important extensions of previous swings, we tend to get multi-day highs. Price resistance and target at the same time is band of 1127 - 1132. But overall,

my work shows that last 10 days of March, or first week of April, is when SP's should be setting this year highs, around 1170 or so.

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/27/2010 8:13:42 PM

ForJL314

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Hi Guys,

Was up late last night doing some experimental work on Hurst cycles. Came up with March 30th as a significant date which certainly looks to be a top. Simon, I find it interesting that you are coming up with a similar date but coming from a different perspective. Im pretty sure I remember HT calling late March important too but dont want to speak for him.
Had contemplated doing a post on this but still digging out from the snowstorm here in my neck of the woods. From a cyclic standpoint Im looking for a rally phase early in week before the market starts to comeback around midweek, Wednesday or Thursday. At this time have yet to do any other type of analysis to support either prediction.

Joe

ForJL314

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P: 2/28/2010 12:22:28 PM

SimonB

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Hi Joe, thanks,

This is from Feb 24th from a different thread, I only post these if I have quite a few different techniques pointing to stronger probability of similar outcome, just don't want to clutter each chart too much.

Simon Barbier

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P: 2/28/2010 1:50:03 PM

dctommy

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much of my research confirms the same: 1-2 weeks upside then down we go!

dctommy

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P: 3/10/2010 3:01:41 AM

datapool

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Member Since: 2/23/2008

Update on dominant cycles momentum.

Interesting times right now. During the next weeks the battle between bulls and bears will reach a decision point. Perhaps the market is during a phase of rolling over to the next down leg. Watch the cyclic fractal September/October 2007 that is again forming now. The alternative is that the market cycles will switch back to upward momentum during the next week. I will watch the dominant cycles momentum closely.As up to now from mid january the cycles momentum was not able to go much above the zero line. If the cycles momentum will break out to the upside, the picture will change.

Lars

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P: 3/10/2010 2:58:09 PM

vpx

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Hi Lars,

Great analysis as usual.

How many Cycles make up the Solunar Model?

Thanks

vpx

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P: 3/10/2010 3:21:28 PM

datapool

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Hi vpx,

the solunar cycles model is really something innovative. I will come up with some interestings news about this later this year. The actual model for 2010 incooperates cyclic analysis from 1972 up to know. Please allow that I do not want to go into the details for this model in an open internet forum.... but you can be sure that the w59 community will be the first where I will start to publish news about this...;-)

Regards,
Lars

Lars

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P: 3/13/2010 7:01:14 AM

datapool

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Update on average dominant cycles momentum:

The domcyc momentum was not able to break out to the upside. The bull is not back. We have the next bearish divergence here. My solunar cycles model is also short right now. So from the perspective of the cycles, the market batlle against the inner cycles have to come to an end...

Lars

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P: 3/15/2010 12:41:43 PM

vpx

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Thanks Lars

vpx

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P: 3/15/2010 1:22:06 PM

qualitystocks64

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Thanks Lars!

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P: 3/27/2010 6:04:01 AM

datapool

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Close up: We have the next official sell signal since the jan 15th sell point.

Lars

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P: 3/29/2010 11:20:50 AM

vpx

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The Hi may come in March 31st-April 2nd...possible 200-300 point drop at least, on the DOW.

Best

vpx

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P: 4/13/2010 4:31:59 PM

dannyss35

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Well 3 days till my put options expire, again

I refuse to pick tops and bottoms as it is just to painful

Has anyone made money on the short side in the last 2months?

I really think simple is better

danny

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P: 4/13/2010 4:55:12 PM

qualitystocks64

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Lars,
Any updates to your charts?

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P: 4/14/2010 2:36:28 AM

datapool

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Here comes the update. Nothing new on the horizon. We have two sell signals around the 6000 level of the german DAX as a measurement vehicle. Actual level is 6230 - so this system is underwater by around 3.5 percent. Thats ok for trading pure cycles on a daily basis. I have told you in the posts before what I am expecting, the larger picture still remains intact...

Lars

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P: 4/14/2010 3:40:50 AM

datapool

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FAQ: How to trade the dominant cycles momentum?

There are two ways to use the dominant cycles momentum I showed in this thread for trading.

1. Major change in market characteristics - major tops and bottoms - longer term perspective

This is what I have shown in this thread. Look for situations where the main momentum crosses below/above the midline and there are big divergences between price behavior and cyclic pressure. In the first post I showed you the situations where these situations occur. This signal should warn and inform you that it looks like a major change in market behaviour will come into play. This signal is not exact by the day - but as hitstory shows from a longer perspective, it worked out nicely when you can give the market (and your potfolio) time. This signal is very important. Perhaps we see an exhaustion of a market after the signal (like now) but this is also very common before larger trend changes.

2. Just trade when the dominant cycle momentum and technical trend are in alignment - midterm perspective

This is pure trend trading. Use one technical indicator to identify the current trend. And then go long when the dominant cycles momentum is positive - cycles pressure in direction of the technical trend. Go short when the cycles momentum is negative and the current technical trend is down. Simple.

I have a trading system running which is doing just that. Using the dominant cycles information and as a technical indicator I am just using the smartmoneyindex. Thats all. If both are in alignment, the systems is in the market. I am very happy with this simpe system for trading cycles momentum in direction of the trend:

Yearly results for the last 10 years up to now/today (one future contract on the DAX index):

2000: 210.419.48
2001: 22.864.50
2002: 46.426.53
2003: 21.265.50
2004: 28.913.00
2005: 11.079.49
2006: 28.108.01
2007: 43.548.49
2008: -7.353.49
2009: 74.633.01
2010: 64.468.51

Statistics:

Total Profit: 517.812.52
Long Profit: 364.739.50
Short Profit: 153.073.02

Accuracy: 52.63%
Winning Trades: 30
Losing Trades: 27
Total Trades: 57

Avg. Win: 24.893.45
Avg. Loss: -8.481.15
Avg. Trade: 9.084.43
Win/Loss Ratio: 2.9

Largest Win: 113.873.00
Largest Loss: -24.777.49

Gross Profit: 746.803.54
Gross Loss: -228.991.02
Profit Factor: 3.3
Annual Return: 40.09%

So, I decided to give some information on how to use cycles for trade decision make. They are very powerfull - but you have to act cautiosly with the information...

Hope this helps a little on what I am doing with cycles.

Fell free to ask if you have any questions.

Regards,
Lars

Lars

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P: 4/14/2010 5:22:07 AM

bjorn97

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Hi Lars,

Is the whentotrade forum still active ?

I have posted a question April 5th and uptil now no answer.

Best,

Gido

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P: 4/14/2010 8:24:23 AM

SimonB

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Hi All,

Two charts below of DOW and SP's are from earlier thread, actually I had some computer problems and lost some of my charts, but we are approaching long outstanding targets and res. levels on both DOW and SP's, April 19-20 is next pivotal time frame, if we will see SP's eclipse 1200 and DOW get to 11,200 level or better in the next 2-5 trading days, everything will be in place for longer term top.

/idealbb/files/DOW_WEEKLY_MARCH_27_20101.jpg

/idealbb/files/ES_WEEKLY_MARCH_18_20101.jpg

Good trading,

Simon Barbier

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P: 4/14/2010 9:23:40 AM

datapool

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Gido, please have a look into the wtt forum. I have placed the answer there.

Simon, I love this chart - it will be amazing to see if the market turns at the areas you showed us 4-6 month ago! We will see during the next weeks!

Thanks for posting!

Lars

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P: 4/14/2010 8:41:23 PM

SimonB

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Thanks Lars,

You know how it is, Market rarely stops exactly on the number, after a move like we've had, +/- a percent or so is no big deal I guess, there is large resistance at 1228 aprox. also. The main point I think is that this is important time period for the Market, second half of April. We either get a turn during this kind of time resistance, or if clear it, may just go parabolic from here, will see I guess.

Simon Barbier

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